Market Update - October 2025

🏡 October Market Insights — Austin / Central Texas Edition

As we settle into October, the Central Texas real estate market is showing real signs of balance: more inventory, slightly softer pricing, and a more even playing field between buyers and sellers. Let’s cut through the noise and look at what’s actually happening here in the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos area

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💰 Rates Still Don’t Bow to the Fed (They Never Did)

Quick reminder I always share: the Federal Reserve doesn’t control mortgage rates. What they do is influence short-term lending and inflation expectations — which in turn affect bond markets, especially the 10-year Treasury.

Mortgage rates move based on how investors react to inflation data and long-term economic forecasts, not from any direct decision by the Fed. Recently, as inflation pressures have eased and market volatility has cooled, bond yields have dipped slightly, allowing mortgage rates to stabilize a bit.

📊 Austin / MSA Market Snapshot

Metric	Current Trend / Value
Home sales growth	In September 2025, Austin’s home sales rose about 16.6% year-over-year, while the broader MSA was up 6.7%.
Median home price (MSA)	Down ~1.8% year-over-year to $420,000.
Inventory / months of supply	Up to roughly 5.7 months, signaling a more balanced market.
Active listings	Increased notably year-over-year, giving buyers more options.
Days on market	Median 78 days, with about 40% of listings sitting over 100 days.
Average home value (Zillow HVI)	Around $428,390, down 5.9% year-over-year.
Price adjustments	Price reductions are more common, and list-to-sale price gaps are widening slightly.

🏠 What This Means for You

For Buyers:You now have leverage. With inventory up and competition down, you can negotiate more comfortably — and if you buy now, you’re not stuck forever. Once rates improve, refinancing is always on the table.

For Homeowners:Keep an eye on the bond market and inflation trends. Even a modest shift downward in rates could open up refinance opportunities, especially if you bought during a peak-rate period.

For Sellers:Overpricing is risky in this environment. The most successful sellers are those pricing smartly, responding quickly to feedback, and staying flexible on terms.

🔁 The Bigger Picture

The Austin market isn’t in decline — it’s normalizing. After years of rapid growth, we’re finally back to a pace that feels sustainable. For buyers, that means more choice. For sellers, it means recalibrating strategy.

And for homeowners, it’s about staying ready to act when opportunity knocks — whether that’s upgrading, refinancing, or investing again.